Anais do Seminário de Automação & TI


ISSN 2594-5335

25° Seminário de Automação e TI vol. 25, num.25 (2023)


Título

APLICAÇÃO DE DATA SCIENCE NA PREVISÃO DE DEMANDA DE ENERGIA ELÉTRICA

APPLICATION OF DATA SCIENCE IN ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST

DOI

10.5151/2594-5335-39695

Downloads

19 Downloads

Resumo

A matriz energética na Siderurgia é composta principalmente por energia elétrica e térmica. As siderúrgicas são consideradas grandes consumidoras de energia e, para se manterem sustentáveis e competitivas, precisam otimizar seus contratos de consumo de demanda elétrica. O presente trabalho propõe um modelo de regressão para melhoria contínua em eficiência energética e operacional da Usiminas, unidade de Cubatão, transformando o conhecimento interno em uma base de conhecimento explícito com a utilização de Data Science. O modelo proposto recebeu uma série temporal histórica dos dados de produção correlacionados à demanda de energia elétrica consumida, retornando uma predição de valores de demanda a serem contratados. Essa demanda predita deverá sustentar a produção da empresa e possíveis reduções dos valores de energia contratados, baseando-se na projeção da produção para os próximos anos. Os resultados da etapa de teste do modelo, em relação às informações reais de anos passados, se mostram satisfatórios. Isto nos leva a acreditar que a sua aplicação na predição dos valores de demanda elétrica a serem contratados nos proporcionará agilidade e assertividade.

 

The energy matrix in the Steel Industry is composed mainly of electrical and thermal energy. Steelmakers are considered major consumers of energy and, in order to remain sustainable and competitive, they need to optimize their electricity demand consumption contracts. The present work proposes a regression model for continuous improvement in energy and operational efficiency at Usiminas, Cubatão unit, transforming internal knowledge into an explicit knowledge base using Data Science. The proposed model received a historical time series of production data correlated to the consumed electricity demand, returning a prediction of demand values to be contracted. This predicted demand should support the company's production and possible reductions in contracted energy values, based on the projection of production for the coming years. The results of the model's test stage, in relation to real information from past years, are satisfactory. This leads us to believe that its application in predicting the electricity demand values to be contracted will provide us with agility and assertiveness.

Palavras-chave

Energia; Data Science; Predição.

Energy; Data Science; Prediction.

Como citar

Alcântara, Rivaldo de; Perez, Lucas; Assunção, Renato. APLICAÇÃO DE DATA SCIENCE NA PREVISÃO DE DEMANDA DE ENERGIA ELÉTRICA , p. 226-239. In: 25° Seminário de Automação e TI, São Paulo, 2023.
ISSN: 2594-5335 , DOI 10.5151/2594-5335-39695

Whoops, looks like something went wrong.

(1/1) ErrorException

fwrite(): write of 1826 bytes failed with errno=28 No space left on device

in StreamHandler.php line 131
at HandleExceptions->handleError(8, 'fwrite(): write of 1826 bytes failed with errno=28 No space left on device', '/var/www/webroot/ROOT/vendor/monolog/monolog/src/Monolog/Handler/StreamHandler.php', 131, array('stream' => resource, 'record' => array('message' => 'file_put_contents(): write of 326 bytes failed with errno=28 No space left on device', 'context' => array('exception' => object(ErrorException)), 'level' => 400, 'level_name' => 'ERROR', 'channel' => 'production', 'datetime' => object(DateTime), 'extra' => array(), 'formatted' => '[2025-06-02 10:54:45] production.ERROR: file_put_contents(): write of 326 bytes failed with errno=28 No space left on device {"exception":"[object] (ErrorException(code: 0): file_put_contents(): write of 326 bytes failed with errno=28 No space left on device at /var/www/webroot/ROOT/vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Filesystem/Filesystem.php:122)[stacktrace]#0 [internal function]: Illuminate\\\\Foundation\\\\Bootstrap\\\\HandleExceptions->handleError(8, \'file_put_conten...\', \'/var/www/webroo...\', 122, Array)#1 /var/www/webroot/ROOT/vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Filesystem/Filesystem.php(122): file_put_contents(\'/var/www/webroo...\', \'a:5:{s:6:\\"_toke...\', 2)#2 /var/www/webroot/ROOT/vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Session/FileSessionHandler.php(83): Illuminate\\\\Filesystem\\\\Filesystem->put(\'/var/www/webroo...\', \'a:5:{s:6:\\"_toke...\', true)#3 /var/www/webroot/ROOT/vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Session/Store.php(128): Illuminate\\\\Session\\\\FileSessionHandler->write(\'mOfKZv7RsM3rYzB...\', \'a:5:{s:6:\\"_toke...\')#4 /var/www/webroot/ROOT/vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Session/Middleware/StartSession.php(87): Illuminate\\\\Session\\\\Store->save()#5 /var/www/webroot/ROOT/vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Foundation/Http/Kernel.php(218): Illuminate\\\\Session\\\\Middleware\\\\StartSession->terminate(Object(Illuminate\\\\Http\\\\Request), Object(Illuminate\\\\Http\\\\Response))#6 /var/www/webroot/ROOT/vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Foundation/Http/Kernel.php(189): Illuminate\\\\Foundation\\\\Http\\\\Kernel->terminateMiddleware(Object(Illuminate\\\\Http\\\\Request), Object(Illuminate\\\\Http\\\\Response))#7 /var/www/webroot/ROOT/public/index.php(59): Illuminate\\\\Foundation\\\\Http\\\\Kernel->terminate(Object(Illuminate\\\\Http\\\\Request), Object(Illuminate\\\\Http\\\\Response))#8 {main}"} ')))
at fwrite(resource, '[2025-06-02 10:54:45] production.ERROR: file_put_contents(): write of 326 bytes failed with errno=28 No space left on device {"exception":"[object] (ErrorException(code: 0): file_put_contents(): write of 326 bytes failed with errno=28 No space left on device at /var/www/webroot/ROOT/vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Filesystem/Filesystem.php:122)[stacktrace]#0 [internal function]: Illuminate\\\\Foundation\\\\Bootstrap\\\\HandleExceptions->handleError(8, \'file_put_conten...\', \'/var/www/webroo...\', 122, Array)#1 /var/www/webroot/ROOT/vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Filesystem/Filesystem.php(122): file_put_contents(\'/var/www/webroo...\', \'a:5:{s:6:\\"_toke...\', 2)#2 /var/www/webroot/ROOT/vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Session/FileSessionHandler.php(83): Illuminate\\\\Filesystem\\\\Filesystem->put(\'/var/www/webroo...\', \'a:5:{s:6:\\"_toke...\', true)#3 /var/www/webroot/ROOT/vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Session/Store.php(128): Illuminate\\\\Session\\\\FileSessionHandler->write(\'mOfKZv7RsM3rYzB...\', \'a:5:{s:6:\\"_toke...\')#4 /var/www/webroot/ROOT/vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Session/Middleware/StartSession.php(87): Illuminate\\\\Session\\\\Store->save()#5 /var/www/webroot/ROOT/vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Foundation/Http/Kernel.php(218): Illuminate\\\\Session\\\\Middleware\\\\StartSession->terminate(Object(Illuminate\\\\Http\\\\Request), Object(Illuminate\\\\Http\\\\Response))#6 /var/www/webroot/ROOT/vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Foundation/Http/Kernel.php(189): Illuminate\\\\Foundation\\\\Http\\\\Kernel->terminateMiddleware(Object(Illuminate\\\\Http\\\\Request), Object(Illuminate\\\\Http\\\\Response))#7 /var/www/webroot/ROOT/public/index.php(59): Illuminate\\\\Foundation\\\\Http\\\\Kernel->terminate(Object(Illuminate\\\\Http\\\\Request), Object(Illuminate\\\\Http\\\\Response))#8 {main}"} ')in StreamHandler.php line 131
at StreamHandler->streamWrite(resource, array('message' => 'file_put_contents(): write of 326 bytes failed with errno=28 No space left on device', 'context' => array('exception' => object(ErrorException)), 'level' => 400, 'level_name' => 'ERROR', 'channel' => 'production', 'datetime' => object(DateTime), 'extra' => array(), 'formatted' => '[2025-06-02 10:54:45] production.ERROR: file_put_contents(): write of 326 bytes failed with errno=28 No space left on device {"exception":"[object] (ErrorException(code: 0): file_put_contents(): write of 326 bytes failed with errno=28 No space left on device at /var/www/webroot/ROOT/vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Filesystem/Filesystem.php:122)[stacktrace]#0 [internal function]: Illuminate\\\\Foundation\\\\Bootstrap\\\\HandleExceptions->handleError(8, \'file_put_conten...\', \'/var/www/webroo...\', 122, Array)#1 /var/www/webroot/ROOT/vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Filesystem/Filesystem.php(122): file_put_contents(\'/var/www/webroo...\', \'a:5:{s:6:\\"_toke...\', 2)#2 /var/www/webroot/ROOT/vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Session/FileSessionHandler.php(83): Illuminate\\\\Filesystem\\\\Filesystem->put(\'/var/www/webroo...\', \'a:5:{s:6:\\"_toke...\', true)#3 /var/www/webroot/ROOT/vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Session/Store.php(128): Illuminate\\\\Session\\\\FileSessionHandler->write(\'mOfKZv7RsM3rYzB...\', \'a:5:{s:6:\\"_toke...\')#4 /var/www/webroot/ROOT/vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Session/Middleware/StartSession.php(87): Illuminate\\\\Session\\\\Store->save()#5 /var/www/webroot/ROOT/vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Foundation/Http/Kernel.php(218): Illuminate\\\\Session\\\\Middleware\\\\StartSession->terminate(Object(Illuminate\\\\Http\\\\Request), Object(Illuminate\\\\Http\\\\Response))#6 /var/www/webroot/ROOT/vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Foundation/Http/Kernel.php(189): Illuminate\\\\Foundation\\\\Http\\\\Kernel->terminateMiddleware(Object(Illuminate\\\\Http\\\\Request), Object(Illuminate\\\\Http\\\\Response))#7 /var/www/webroot/ROOT/public/index.php(59): Illuminate\\\\Foundation\\\\Http\\\\Kernel->terminate(Object(Illuminate\\\\Http\\\\Request), Object(Illuminate\\\\Http\\\\Response))#8 {main}"} '))in StreamHandler.php line 117
at StreamHandler->write(array('message' => 'file_put_contents(): write of 326 bytes failed with errno=28 No space left on device', 'context' => array('exception' => object(ErrorException)), 'level' => 400, 'level_name' => 'ERROR', 'channel' => 'production', 'datetime' => object(DateTime), 'extra' => array(), 'formatted' => '[2025-06-02 10:54:45] production.ERROR: file_put_contents(): write of 326 bytes failed with errno=28 No space left on device {"exception":"[object] (ErrorException(code: 0): file_put_contents(): write of 326 bytes failed with errno=28 No space left on device at /var/www/webroot/ROOT/vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Filesystem/Filesystem.php:122)[stacktrace]#0 [internal function]: Illuminate\\\\Foundation\\\\Bootstrap\\\\HandleExceptions->handleError(8, \'file_put_conten...\', \'/var/www/webroo...\', 122, Array)#1 /var/www/webroot/ROOT/vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Filesystem/Filesystem.php(122): file_put_contents(\'/var/www/webroo...\', \'a:5:{s:6:\\"_toke...\', 2)#2 /var/www/webroot/ROOT/vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Session/FileSessionHandler.php(83): Illuminate\\\\Filesystem\\\\Filesystem->put(\'/var/www/webroo...\', \'a:5:{s:6:\\"_toke...\', true)#3 /var/www/webroot/ROOT/vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Session/Store.php(128): Illuminate\\\\Session\\\\FileSessionHandler->write(\'mOfKZv7RsM3rYzB...\', \'a:5:{s:6:\\"_toke...\')#4 /var/www/webroot/ROOT/vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Session/Middleware/StartSession.php(87): Illuminate\\\\Session\\\\Store->save()#5 /var/www/webroot/ROOT/vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Foundation/Http/Kernel.php(218): Illuminate\\\\Session\\\\Middleware\\\\StartSession->terminate(Object(Illuminate\\\\Http\\\\Request), Object(Illuminate\\\\Http\\\\Response))#6 /var/www/webroot/ROOT/vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Foundation/Http/Kernel.php(189): Illuminate\\\\Foundation\\\\Http\\\\Kernel->terminateMiddleware(Object(Illuminate\\\\Http\\\\Request), Object(Illuminate\\\\Http\\\\Response))#7 /var/www/webroot/ROOT/public/index.php(59): Illuminate\\\\Foundation\\\\Http\\\\Kernel->terminate(Object(Illuminate\\\\Http\\\\Request), Object(Illuminate\\\\Http\\\\Response))#8 {main}"} '))in AbstractProcessingHandler.php line 39
at AbstractProcessingHandler->handle(array('message' => 'file_put_contents(): write of 326 bytes failed with errno=28 No space left on device', 'context' => array('exception' => object(ErrorException)), 'level' => 400, 'level_name' => 'ERROR', 'channel' => 'production', 'datetime' => object(DateTime), 'extra' => array(), 'formatted' => '[2025-06-02 10:54:45] production.ERROR: file_put_contents(): write of 326 bytes failed with errno=28 No space left on device {"exception":"[object] (ErrorException(code: 0): file_put_contents(): write of 326 bytes failed with errno=28 No space left on device at /var/www/webroot/ROOT/vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Filesystem/Filesystem.php:122)[stacktrace]#0 [internal function]: Illuminate\\\\Foundation\\\\Bootstrap\\\\HandleExceptions->handleError(8, \'file_put_conten...\', \'/var/www/webroo...\', 122, Array)#1 /var/www/webroot/ROOT/vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Filesystem/Filesystem.php(122): file_put_contents(\'/var/www/webroo...\', \'a:5:{s:6:\\"_toke...\', 2)#2 /var/www/webroot/ROOT/vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Session/FileSessionHandler.php(83): Illuminate\\\\Filesystem\\\\Filesystem->put(\'/var/www/webroo...\', \'a:5:{s:6:\\"_toke...\', true)#3 /var/www/webroot/ROOT/vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Session/Store.php(128): Illuminate\\\\Session\\\\FileSessionHandler->write(\'mOfKZv7RsM3rYzB...\', \'a:5:{s:6:\\"_toke...\')#4 /var/www/webroot/ROOT/vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Session/Middleware/StartSession.php(87): Illuminate\\\\Session\\\\Store->save()#5 /var/www/webroot/ROOT/vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Foundation/Http/Kernel.php(218): Illuminate\\\\Session\\\\Middleware\\\\StartSession->terminate(Object(Illuminate\\\\Http\\\\Request), Object(Illuminate\\\\Http\\\\Response))#6 /var/www/webroot/ROOT/vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Foundation/Http/Kernel.php(189): Illuminate\\\\Foundation\\\\Http\\\\Kernel->terminateMiddleware(Object(Illuminate\\\\Http\\\\Request), Object(Illuminate\\\\Http\\\\Response))#7 /var/www/webroot/ROOT/public/index.php(59): Illuminate\\\\Foundation\\\\Http\\\\Kernel->terminate(Object(Illuminate\\\\Http\\\\Request), Object(Illuminate\\\\Http\\\\Response))#8 {main}"} '))in Logger.php line 344
at Logger->addRecord(400, 'file_put_contents(): write of 326 bytes failed with errno=28 No space left on device', array('exception' => object(ErrorException)))in Logger.php line 707
at Logger->error('file_put_contents(): write of 326 bytes failed with errno=28 No space left on device', array('exception' => object(ErrorException)))in Writer.php line 203
at Writer->writeLog('error', 'file_put_contents(): write of 326 bytes failed with errno=28 No space left on device', array('exception' => object(ErrorException)))in Writer.php line 114
at Writer->error('file_put_contents(): write of 326 bytes failed with errno=28 No space left on device', array('exception' => object(ErrorException)))in Handler.php line 113
at Handler->report(object(ErrorException))in Handler.php line 100
at Handler->report(object(ErrorException))in HandleExceptions.php line 81
at HandleExceptions->handleException(object(ErrorException))