Title

Australia's Role in the Future Seaborne Metallurgical Coal Industry

Australia's Role in the Future Seaborne Metallurgical Coal Industry

Authorship

Davis, Brian

Davis, Brian

I am this author

DOI

10.5151/ABM-IRONMAKING-2001-2001195

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Abstract

The fundamental changes that have ocorrido in the seaborne metallurgical coal trade have, to a large extent, been driven by Australian low-cost, high-quality hard coking coal production. The new production already announced and likely to be approved will sustain these changes. The next 18 to 24 months will see a critical tightness of supply continue, resulting in higher pricing and shortages of coal. In the medium to long term, new Australian production, along with current exports from other countries such as Canada, will meet demand and bring the market back into balance. Very low pricing, similar to that seen in 1999/2000, though, is unlikely to reoccur without supply being threatened again. Australian and Canadian production of hard coking coal is predominantly mid and low volatile, with higher phosphorus levels and lower fluidity than USA East Coast high and mid volatile coals, which are reducing in supply. This will require buyers to change coke-making practices in the Atlantic to access this new Australian lower-cost coal or pay the very high prices that USA coal can achieve in its domestic market.

The fundamental changes that have ocorrido in the seaborne metallurgical coal trade have, to a large extent, been driven by Australian low-cost, high-quality hard coking coal production. The new production already announced and likely to be approved will sustain these changes. The next 18 to 24 months will see a critical tightness of supply continue, resulting in higher pricing and shortages of coal. In the medium to long term, new Australian production, along with current exports from other countries such as Canada, will meet demand and bring the market back into balance. Very low pricing, similar to that seen in 1999/2000, though, is unlikely to reoccur without supply being threatened again. Australian and Canadian production of hard coking coal is predominantly mid and low volatile, with higher phosphorus levels and lower fluidity than USA East Coast high and mid volatile coals, which are reducing in supply. This will require buyers to change coke-making practices in the Atlantic to access this new Australian lower-cost coal or pay the very high prices that USA coal can achieve in its domestic market.

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